Oil rose on Thursday after a survey showed OPEC's commitment to its supply cuts remains in place, even as U.S. production topped 10 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time since 1970. Production in the Federal Gulf of Mexico reached 1.67 million b/d, up 14% from the October 2017 level as the region recovered from Hurricane Nate.
Oil-market news. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak plans to meet key oil-company executives for a regular discussion of annual results, two officials with knowledge of the matter said, asking not to be identified as the information isn't yet public.
That production growth will be propped up by a growing export market.
Goldman joins other Wall Street banks including Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co.in ratcheting up its outlook, as economic growth and output cuts led by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have helped to boost prices.
As the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries trims production, USA oil output is surging.
Here's the U.S.'s short but epic journey from a grateful importer of OPEC oil to a promising global energy exporter.
Goldman Sachs drew an even more bullish conclusion, saying in a note to clients Thursday that "the rebalancing of the oil market has likely been achieved, six months sooner than we expected". "That's a huge jump, and we expect USA exports, including both crude exports and product exports, will continue to grow double digits this year", Xu said.
"U.S. crude oil production has increased significantly over the past 10 years, driven mainly by production from tight rock formations including shale and other fine-grained rock using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing to improve efficiency", EIA said.
The US Energy Information Administration issued figures this week, slightly below records set back in November 1970, looking to overtake Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia as major producers. But higher prices have motivated US shale producers to ramp up production, exacerbating oversupply concerns and putting a cap on prices, analysts say.
Goldman's short-term optimism presumably baffles Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service: he told CNBC that crude has entered a danger zone due to "the tremendous speculative bubble and the money on the crude oil side".
Brent for April settlement was at $69.87 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, up 22 cents.
"There's no doubt shale players will respond to higher prices", says Jan Edelmann, commodity analyst at HSH Nordbank AG.
Yesterday still, the EIA released a report defending its numbers to investors. They should peak sometime around late summer, but that will probably be followed by a quick slide back to near current prices.
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